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Wednesday 30 January 2013

Nifty - 30 Jan 2013 - Back to the trading range

Nifty makes a new high, gets sold off and returns to the trading range.

In our yesterday's post Bulls stay cautious, we had suggested that in spite of being cautious, the Bulls still hold the keys to the Nifty, and that suggestion came true, as the Nifty after a mild negative opening, ground into a narrow trading range before the RBI monetary policy announcements, and then swiftly made a new high, got sold off, again made a newer high at 6112 before again getting sold off and making a low of 6042 before closing at 6050 with a loss of 25 points. We must confess here, that during all this hullabaloo, both our trading plans got triggered and met their respective targets without hitting the stop loss, and we missed out on a real 100 pointer just because of our over obsession with our medium term view. The only positive is that this has made us even more confident about our trading plans in the future.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +52 to +74 Bear Power also rises from +25 to +4 indicating that though the Nifty has closed lower, the Bears have not yet been able to recover fully their lost grounds. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6115 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6035 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty has closed just below its 8EMA (6051) and has closed above all its other key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics remain just below the overbought zone and are pointing skewed.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may continue for a while. The MACD continues to point horizontal. The ADX is suggesting a rise in the upwards momentum and bottoming out of the overall momentum. The Parabolic SAR has now turned into a buy signal with a SL of 6008.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 6020 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 6000 and a target of 6085. We will add to these long positions only above 6100.

b) Around 6090 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 6100 and a target of 6040. We will add to these short positions only below 6000.

Happy Trading !!! 


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