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Thursday 27 December 2012

Nifty - 27 Dec 2012 - Battle for 5900

On expiry day, the battle seems to be on for 5900 as the trading range persists.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty got back into the trading zone after mimicking a breakdown. The Nifty opened with a small positive gap of 9 points and hovered around it for the first hour of trade, after which the Bulls took over and the Nifty rose to above 5900. However, it found resistance near the upper band of the trading zone and after making a high of 5918, the Nifty closed at 5905 with a gain of 50 points. Our trading plan (b) got triggered and met the SL and we booked out with a loss of 20 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +3 to +44 Bear Power reduces from -24 to -14 indicating that though the Bulls have gained, the Bears cannot be counted out yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5925 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5860 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing across each other, indicating volatility and indecision ahead.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained muted with the rise in the Nifty, indicating that the prices may not sustain if not quickly backed up by volumes. The MACD continues with its negative indications. The ADX is showing signals of a whipsaw with the momentum turning downwards. The Parabolic SAR continues to give out its sell signal with a SL of 5935.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5870 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5855 and a target of 5920. We will add to these long positions only above 5955.

b) Around 5940 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5955 and a target of 5890. We will add to these short positions only below 5855.

Happy Trading !!! 

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