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Wednesday 31 October 2012

Nifty - 31 Oct 2012 - Volatile end of month

As the Nifty nears short term supports, volatility may rise on the last day of month.

As discussed yesterday, the Bullish consolidation that continued on the Nifty for last 14 sessions, gave way to a breakdown of sorts, as the RBI did not cut the interest rates as expected by the markets. Our plan (a) triggered and hit its target. Also our plan(b) got triggered and hit its target. Not only that part (b) of our plan(b) also got triggered later in the day. All in all we could book a hefty profit of 120 points in a day.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +17 to +20 Bear Power also rises from -37 to -80 indicative of the volatility that lies ahead. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5685 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5580 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are now almost touching the oversold zone.

 


4) In the above charts the volumes have increased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the downfall may sustain for now. The MACD continues to fall and the histogram becomes even more negative. The ADX is now suggesting more momentum for the downtrend. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5560 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5545 and a target of 5620. We will add to these long positions only above 5655.

b) Around 5635 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5655 and a target of 5585. We will add to these short positions only below 5545.

Happy Trading !!!     

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