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Monday 26 March 2012

Nifty - 26 Mar 2012 - Rangebound consolidation

As the Nifty seeks new drivers and direction, rangebound consolidation is on.

As discussed on Friday, it turned out to be a volatile day with the Nifty swinging within a 90 point range, amidst neither the Bulls nor the Bears able to take control. Today, too the same scenario is likely to be repeated unless one of the two comes forward with follow up.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +62 to -5 Bear Power also reduces from -118 to -97, indicating the lack of follow up on part of the Bears and the weakening of the Bulls, leading to volatility intraday. For today, the Bulls have to breach 5320 on the upside, to regain lost grounds and then have to breach 5380 to get some momentum going their way. On the other hand, the Bears need to breach 5220 on the downside, to maintain their current momentum.

2) The Nifty continues to trade right between its key EMAs and its 100 and 200 DMAs. However, it is still below its 50 DMA. This is slightly biased towards the Bears, but they need to show some follow up selling.

3) The Stochastics are totally flat, indicating no momentum at all.



4) In the above chart, the volumes have dropped in Friday's small rise in the Nifty, indicating lack of interest amongst the market participants. The MACD has now gone into the negative after a long time, indicating a Bearish bias. The ADX is suggesting a listless market with both the Bears and the Bulls losing momentum. This is also a indication that a new strong support or a new strong resistance might be in the formation. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5295, we will initiate fresh short positions with a SL of 5320 and a target of 5235. We will add to these short positions below 5210.

b) Around 5230, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5210 and a target of 5280. We will add to these long positions above 5330.

Happy Trading !!! 

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