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Sunday 25 November 2012

Nifty - 26 Nov 2012 - Nifty may turn volatile

Nifty grinds further in a narrow range. May turn volatile owing to expiry jitters.

As discussed on Friday, Nifty seemed to be getting ready for a big move. However, the Nifty chose to grind in a narrow range of 45 points. The Nifty opened a bit higher, gave away all the gains, only to close below the opening mark and give out a red candle on the chart. The Bears managed to break the previous day's low while the Bulls failed to overcome the previous day's high, which should be noted. Our plan (a) triggered and in the late evening surge, gave us a profit of 30 points without hitting our SL.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +7 to +3 Bear Power rises from -28 to -41 indicating that the Bears have now restarted their gains. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5645 to retain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5590 on the Nifty to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has yet again closed above its 8EMA but below its 13EMA and 21EMA. It has also closed below its 50DMA but above its 100DMA and 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral region and are pointing flat.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes remain low with the Nifty remaining stagnant, indicating a big move lurching round the corner. The MACD continues to fall and the histogram continues in the negative. The ADX continues to favor the downtrend. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5655 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5675 and a target of 5610. We will add to these short positions only below 5580.

b) Around 5600 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5580 and a target of 5640. We will add to these long positions only above 5675.

Happy Trading !!!    

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