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Tuesday 20 November 2012

Nifty - 20 Nov 2012 - Nifty may turn volatile

Nifty being sandwiched in a 100 point trading range may turn volatile.

We are back after a much needed refreshing one week vacation, and today, we will start afresh without any comments on the past week. On the daily charts, the Nifty has turned bearish within a 100 point trading range between 5550 (the rising trend-line support) and 5650 (Gap down resistance of 15th Nov 2012) and we will be trading this range as of now.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -16 to -60 Bear Power also reduces from -106 to -103 indicating that Bears failed to give that final push and Nifty took support at yesterday's lows formed at the rising trend line. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5640 on the Nifty to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5535 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty is now trading below all its key EMAs which are stacked inversely. The Nifty is also trading below its 50DMA (5630) but above its 100DMA and 200DMA.

3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone and are indicating a relief rally at least.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have started to deplete with the Nifty falling consistently, indicating that the Nifty is near a crucial support. The MACD has turned negative and the histogram is well below the zero line. The ADX is also suggesting a rise in momentum with a bias towards the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal with a very far away stop loss.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5625 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5645 and a target of 5570. We will add to these short positions only below 5545.

b) Around 5560 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5545 and a target of 5600. We will add to these long positions only above 5645.

Happy Trading !!!  

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