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Tuesday 9 October 2012

Nifty - 09 Oct 2012 - Back to trading mode

Bears have managed to pull the Nifty back into its trading range. Volatility expected.

As discussed yesterday, we did well to stay aside for a day, as the Nifty although opening with a minor positive gap up, gave away all the gains and closed well below the 5700 mark at 5676 with a daily loss of 71 points. This brings the Nifty back into a trading mode, where we buy the dips and sell the rises.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +158 to +87 Bear Power rises from +102 to +1 indicating that the Bears have managed to wipe out most of their disadvantage, however they are still in the opponents territory. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty above 5760 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5665 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty has now closed below its 8EMA (5706) but has closed above its 13EMA (5663) and the 21EMA (5598) and also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are yet in the overbought zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the fall in the Nifty, indicating that the down move may not last long. The MACD is still in the positive, but is declining indicating that a down move is currently on. The ADX is suggesting a reduction in momentum, but is still favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR has now started a sell signal with the SL at 5815.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5725 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5745 and a target of 5650. We will add to these short positions only below 5595.

b) Around 5625 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5595 and a target of 5700. We will add to these long positions only above 5745.

Happy Trading !!! 

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