AD Code

Thursday 30 August 2012

Nifty - 30 Aug 2012 - Expiry Jitters

With the series expiry today, the downmove on the Nifty may continue unabated.

As discussed yesterday, the downmove continued on the Nifty, inspite of the Nifty opening with a minor up gap of 7 points. Right from the word go, the Nifty started to drift downwards and swiftly broke the support levels of 5305, where it was clear that the Bears would be able to sustain their downwards momentum. The Nifty closed with a loss of 47 points finally. Our plan (a) did not trigger at all and our plan (b) got triggered and hit the SL as we booked a 10 points loss.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +8 to +3 Bear Power rises from -38 to -59, indicating that the Bears are gaining momentum very fast now. For today, the Bulls need to take the Nifty over 5345 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5275 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has now closed below all its key EMAs but is above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are touching the oversold zone now.

 


4) In the above chart the volumes have sustained with the fall in the Nifty, indicating the possibility of the downmove continuing. The MACD has now given out a clear negative divergence, and the histogram is also in the negative. The ADX is also suggesting the rising momentum for the Bearish downmove. The Parabolic SAR continues with its sell signal with a stop at 5439.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5305, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5325 and a target of 5255. We will add to these short positions only below 5245.

b) For today, we will not be looking out to open any long positions at any levels.

Happy Trading !!! 

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