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Monday 6 August 2012

Nifty - 06 Aug 2012 - Major hump at 5270

Amidst extremely positive global cues, Nifty may open positive but stumble at 5270.

As discussed on Friday, "Sell on Rise" continued in the morning session, with the Nifty opening with a mild gap down, then clawing above 5200, going down to 5165 and then closing at 5216, in a volatile trading session. Both our trading plans got triggered one after the other and both met their targets. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is about to open with a positive gap up, however, it will be interesting to see how the hump of 5270 is tackled by the Bulls.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power reduces from +48 to +27 Bear Power rises from +21 to -28, indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are well in their own zones, and are equidistant, with the Bulls having a slight advantage of global cues. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5225 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5160 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs, indicating that the short term trend is upwards.

3) The stochastics are in the overbought zone and are pointing downwards.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the Nifty closing at its day's high, but below its previous close, indicating that equal strength of the Bulls and the Bears. The MACD is just above the zero line, and is pointing flat. The ADX is suggesting a bias towards the Bears, and the Parabolic SAR is continuing with its Buy signal with a SL at 5068.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Below 5255, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5270 and a target of 5200. We will add to these short positions only below 5160.

b) Around 5185, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5165 and a target of 5235. We will add to these long positions only above 5280.

Happy Trading !!! 

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