AD Code

Thursday 26 July 2012

Nifty - 26 Jul 2012 - Volatile Expiry

On the series expiry day, Nifty remains bearish. Volatility may rise today.


As discussed yesterday, "Sell on rise" turned out to be the mantra for the day, as the Nifty opened with a minor gap down, made the day's high lower than the previous close and then sold off, only to recover in the afternoon and then sell off again. The weekly open and high are the same around 5165 and this would remain a challenge for the Bulls even today.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power reduces from -58 to -67 Bear Power rises from -98 to -112 indicating that the Bears are slowly and steadily gaining momentum on their side. For today the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5180 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5065 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has yet again closed below all its key EMAs and its 100DMA. The 50DMA and the 200DMA are poised just about 5100.

3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone and are pointing horizontal.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased in yesterday's fall on the Nifty indicating that bearishness can continue for a while. The MACD continues to fall, however the histogram is suggesting a pause. The ADX is now suggesting a rising momentum that is favoring the Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell signal with a SL now at 5227.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5135, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5155 and a target of 5085. We will add to these short positions only below 5065.

b) Around 5085, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5065 and a target of 5130. We will add to these long positions only above 5155.

Happy Trading !!! 

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