AD Code

Tuesday 24 July 2012

Nifty - 24 Jul 2012 - Bears on the roll

Bears have gained upper hand on the Nifty. They need to defend 5130 for today.

Yesterday, in our post "Range-bound consolidation continues", we had expected the Nifty to take support after opening a bit lower and grind into a small range. However, the Nifty chose to open with a big gap down and kept on falling for the entire trading session. A glance at our "Trend identification" guidelines tells us 

"A Bearish trend is identified by the ability of the Bears to breach Day Lows consistently, without causing much harm to the Day Highs." 

Part (b) of our plan (b) got triggered immediately on the opening as the Nifty opened below 5165, and as we entered short on the Nifty, we could book a profit of 50 points by the day's end.

 1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power reduces from +9 to -50 Bear Power rises from -32 to -106 indicating the strength of the stranglehold the Bears have on the Nifty as of now. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5155 on the Nifty to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 5095 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty is now trading below all its key EMAs and also its 100DMA. It is however, above its 50DMA and 200DMA which are at 5090 and 5099 respectively, and could act as the much needed support.

3) The stochastics are now at the oversold zone, but are still pointing downwards.





4) In the above chart, the volumes have again depleted in yesterday's fall on the Nifty, indicating that some supports are round the corner. The MACD continues to be in the positive and continues to fall, indicating further room for more downwards movement. The ADX is indicating a rising momentum for the bearish down move. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell signal with a SL now at 5271.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5135, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5165 and a target of 5090. We will add to these short positions only below 5070.

b) Around 5085, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5070 and a target of 5150. We will add to these long positions only above 5165.

Happy Trading !!! 

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