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Friday 20 July 2012

Nifty - 20 Jul 2012 - Waiting for signal

Nifty stuck right in the middle of its trading range and waiting for further direction.

As discussed in yesterday's post, "Bulls need to follow up", the Bulls opened the Nifty with a hefty 50 point positive gap, however, due to lack of follow up, they were unable to sustain the Nifty above these levels, and the Nifty closed below its opening mark, albeit with a gain of 26 points. In the process, we again had a NR7 day on the Nifty and a big move again on either side is expected today.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power rises from -10 to +24 Bear Power reduces from -64 to -1, indicating that now the Bulls & the Bears both are in their respective zones, with the Nifty tentatively poised right in the middle. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5265 whereas the Bears need to breach 5225 to maintain their respective momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs, which is a Bullish indication.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and have given a bullish crossover. This needs to be confirmed by price action today.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased with the rise in the Nifty, indicating that this up-move may be sustainable. The MACD is in the positive and is pausing. The MACD histogram is in the negative and is also pausing, giving mixed signals. The ADX is suggesting loss of momentum, but is favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR is giving out its sell signal with a SL 0f 5302.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Below 5230, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5245 and a target of 5185. We will add to these short positions only below 5160.

b) Above 5250, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5230 and a target of 5300. We will add to these long positions only above 5325.

Happy Trading !!! 

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