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Thursday 19 July 2012

Nifty - 19 Jul 2012 - Bulls need to follow up

With Nifty taking support at 5170 and bouncing back, the Bulls will have to follow up.

As discussed yesterday, "Nifty was approaching key support levels", the Nifty opened with a small up gap, then drifted down towards the support levels of 5170 and then staged a bounce back of sorts up to 5223 before closing at 5216 with a minor gain of 23 points. Our trading plan (a) got triggered and missed the target by just a couple of points. Global cues are there to help the Bulls get a positive opening. But the further move on the Nifty depends on the follow up by the Bulls.

1) The Elder Ray readings: Bull Power reduces from +1 to -10 Bear Power rises from -54 to -64, indicating that the Bears still have it, and that the Bulls are now out of their safe zone after a marathon 31 trading sessions. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5240 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5165 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and 13EMA, but is marginally above its 21EMA. It is also above all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are still in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.




4)  In the above chart, the volumes have picked up slightly with the rise in the Nifty, indicating that a further up move is possible. The MACD is indicating weakness in the up-move as it is still in the positive and is falling. The MACD histogram is in the negative and is flat, indicating a very range-bound market ahead. The ADX is also suggesting loss of momentum, with a bias towards Bears. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Sell signal, with a SL of 5317.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5200, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5180 and a target of 5245. We will add to these long positions only above 5275.

b) Around 5260, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5275 and a target of 5210. We will add to these short positions only below 5185.

Happy Trading !!! 

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