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Thursday 12 July 2012

Nifty - 12 Jul 2012 - Bulls still in control

In spite of profit booking, the Nifty still is in a Bull grip. Buy on dips expected.

In our yesterday's post, "Bulls stamp their authority", we had expected the Nifty to open with a mild gap down and that 5310 would be a good level to add long positions. This strategy yielded 25 points of profit twice, in a grinding market. The Nifty opened at 5315, with a negative gap of 30 points and then moved up and down within a 40 point range, finally to close at 5306 posting a loss of 40 points. Today, being a eventful day, the Nifty is likely to be more volatile. We expect 5285 to act as a good support.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +100 to +80 Bear Power also reduces from +36 to +43, indicating of the strong grip the Bulls have even in an indecisive market. The Bears now need two maybe three consecutive wins to turn the tide in their favor. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5350 on the Nifty to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below the levels of 5260 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics also continue to remain in the overbought zone.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant with the Nifty moving in a small range, depicting profit booking by the Bulls. The MACD continues to be in the positive but is flattening, indicating some drop of momentum to the up move. The ADX is also suggesting a drop in the momentum of the up move, and still it is favoring the Bulls. The Parabolic SAR continues with its Buy signal with a turnaround point at 5260.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5285, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5260 and a target of 5330. We will add to these long positions only above 5360.

b) Around 5350, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5360 and a target of 5300. We will add to these short positions only below 5260.

Happy Trading !!! 

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