AD Code

Tuesday 5 June 2012

Nifty - 05 Jun 2012 - Nifty enters consolidation mode

The Nifty is now consolidating after breaching previous lows. Today's close critical.

As discussed yesterday, "The Bearish mood" persisted on the bourses in the morning session, with the Nifty opening negative by 45 points and then breaking previous lows to reach 4770. After that however, when the Bears could no further breach the day's lows, the trend reversed and as per our trading plan (a), the nifty overcame 4780 and then reached 4840 which was our target. Today, the Nifty is likely to open flat to positive, and the up move will depend greatly on the follow up action by the bulls.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -5 to -60 Bear Power increases from -99 to -148, indicating that despite yesterday's recovery, the bulls have actually lost grounds and the bears are still in control over the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4905 to regain their safe zone, whereas the Bears need to breach below 4755 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty continues to trade below all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and the fast & slow stochastics are pointing against each other, indicating a possibility of a two way move today.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have slightly decreased in yesterday's rise on the Nifty. The MACD is showing negative divergence, and the histogram is also falling. The ADX is suggesting a growing momentum with a bias towards the Bears. The Parabolic SAR is continuing with its sell signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) At 4825, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4800 and a target of 4885. We will add to these long positions only above 4915.

b) At 4885, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4910 and a target of 4825. We will add to these short positions only below 4800.

c) If our trades do not get triggered today, the bearish signals for the near term will get confirmed and we will open fresh positional short positions at the day end. 

Happy Trading !!! 

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