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Friday 1 June 2012

Nifty - 01 Jun 2012 - Bearish Technical Signals

At the start of a fresh series, Nifty looks bearish below 4920, and more so below 4880.

As discussed yesterday, it turned out to be "A chaotic Expiry" day, with the Nifty opening with a gap down of 55 points and then grinding within a small range directionless for almost the entire day, before spiking up to close the gap at the fag end of the session. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a small negative gap, and looks under bearish pressure. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +34 to +4 Bear Power rises from -4 to -62 indicating that the Bears are gaining strength and now a break of 4880 might embolden them. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4950 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach below 4880 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The Nifty is now trading below all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.

3) The stochastics have just touched the overbought zone and are now pointing downwards.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have almost doubled in yesterday's fall in the Nifty indicating the bearish mood of the market. The MACD is going flat after a few day's of rising and the histogram is threatening to fall. The ADX is now clearly favoring the bears, however it is indicating a slowdown of the momentum. The Parabolic SAR is continuing to hold its buy signal, but could turn around below 4880.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Below 4920, and more so below 4880, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 25 points and a target of 4835. We will add to these short positions only below 4790.

b) Around 4830, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4800 and a target of 4880 and then 4920. We will add to these long positions only above 4955.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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