AD Code

Friday 11 May 2012

Nifty - 11 May 2012 - Supports weakening

The Nifty breached lows for 4 consecutive days. Signs of weakening supports.

As discussed yesterday, the nosedive resumed, after a initial rally in the Nifty that was unable to overcome 5040, the Nifty after breaking 5010, also breached the previous day's low and formed a new low at 4950 and closed at 4966. Today being a weekly close, the Nifty may see some intraday swings, but the downward acceleration may continue if 5040 is not overcome again and if 4950 gets breached.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from -125 to -77 Bear Power reduces from -184 to -165, indicating that the Bears are still the driving force behind the markets, in-spite of their slight loss in momentum. For today the Bulls need to overcome 5110 to return to safety whereas the Bears need to breach 4930 to maintain their downward momentum.

2) The Nifty is trading well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs. 

3) The stochastics are deeply in the oversold zone.




4) In the above chart, the volumes have depleted in yesterday's trade, indicating lack of participation. The MACD is falling away showing a downward divergence. The ADX is also suggesting the strengthening of the down move. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold out its sell signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan is as under.

a) Around 5015, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5050 and a target of 4930. We will add to these short positions only below 4910.

b) Around 4920, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4890 and a target of 4985. We will add to these long positions only above 5050.

c) We will observe 4985 to 5015 as "No trading zone" for the day.

Happy Trading !!! 

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