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Monday 30 April 2012

Nifty - 30 Apr 2012 - Bearishness persists still

On the last day of the month, it is still sell on rise on the Nifty.
On Friday we had suggested, "Bearish signals getting stronger", and that is what unfolded on the Nifty trading. We got the intermittent low breached without the previous day high being taken out. In a late hour swing, the Nifty managed to claw back, and we got a long legged doji formation on the daily charts, indicating the increasing volatility in the markets. This is a signal of continuation of the bearish move on the Nifty for today.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from -28 to -13 Bear Power also increases from -65 to -82 indicating that the Bears are getting stronger whereas the Bulls are stuck in the opponents territory. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5245 to return to their safe zone, whereas the Bears need to breach 5140 to maintain their downward momentum.

2) The Nifty is trading below its key EMAs which are inversely stacked between 5222 and 5250, forming a zone of resistance for any up move. The convergence of 100 and 200 DMAs at 5130 may provide the vital support to the Nifty.

 
3) The Stochastics are just into the oversold zone.



4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased, indicating lack of participation. The MACD is in the negative and is likely to fall further. The ADX is now increasing with a bias towards a down move. The Parabolic SAR continues to hold out its sell signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5230, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5245 and a target of 5145. We will not wait for 5230, if the Nifty sustains below 5190. We will add to these short positions only below 5125.

b) Around 5145, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5125 and a target of 5195. We will add to these long positions only above 5245.

Happy Trading !!! 

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