AD Code

Thursday 26 April 2012

Nifty - 26 Apr 2012 - Cautious Expiry

With the Nifty staying in the tight range for the entire series, expiry is still direction less.

Yesterday, we suggested that bearishness was creeping in, and the Nifty after a flat opening was not able to cross 5240, where the bears struck hard and pulled down the Nifty to 5160, before the bulls pulled back to above 5200. Today, given the global cues and the local tremors, the Nifty is likely to be under bearish pressure still. However, given that today is the day of expiry for the current series, we can expect some volatility too.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from -29 to -17 Bear Power too increases from -81 to -92 indicating that the trading range is increasing, and that the market is gaining participative interest. Also suggests that the Bears are gaining momentum here and the Bulls are still not in their zone. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5260 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to pull down the Nifty below 5145 to maintain their momentum.

2) The Nifty is trading below its key EMAs which are stacked inversely, in the range of 5243 to 5263 which forms an immediate zone of resistance. The 100 and 200 DMAs converging near 5130 could be the support that the Bulls might look out for.



3) The stochastics are just about to touch the oversold zone.



4) In the above chart, the volumes have remained stagnant, indicating still there is lack of participation. The MACD has now turned negative and is threatening to go down even more. The ADX is suggesting a trend less market with a bias towards the bears. The Parabolic SAR is continuing with its Sell signal.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5240, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5265 and a target of 5160. We will add to these short positions only below 5130.

b) Around 5145, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5130 and a target of 5215. We will add to these long positions only above 5270.

Happy Trading !!! 

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