AD Code

Tuesday 20 March 2012

Nifty - 20 Mar 2012 - Bounceback expected

With the Nifty trading at the lower end of its current range, bounce back is expected.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened with a 20 point gap up, but lost the advantage soon, and then languished in a narrow trading range, to close at near the day's low. Today, the Nifty is likely to open flat to positive, and the tussle between Bulls and Bears is likely to be played out.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +85 to -5 Bear Power rises from -56 to -107, indicating that the Bears are in full control as of now and that the Bulls are in their opponents territory. Bears will have to touch 5225 intraday, to maintain their momentum. Bulls need to touch 5335 to regain their lost territory. These could be the defining points for the Nifty today. 5280 can be set as a pivot point to take fresh positions.

2) The Nifty is trading right between its key EMAs and its key DMAs, indicating indecision in the market participants. The 200 DMA is at 5165 which could act as a key support.

3) The stochastics are right in the middle of the overbought and oversold zones and are pointing downwards, confirming the Bearish control over the Nifty.



4) In the above chart, the volumes have declined in yesterday's fall on the Nifty, indicating that a reversal might be coming up. However, the MACD is continuing to decline, the ADX is indicating gain of momentum in the downtrend. Both confirming the Bearish control over the Nifty. The Parabolic SAR is too close to the Nifty in its buy signal. This could turn into a Sell signal if Nifty touches 5225 intraday.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Above 5280, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5260 and a target of 5330. We will add to these long positions above 5345.

b) Below 5280, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5299 and a target of 5230. We will add to these short positions below 5220.

c) Around 5330, we will be bearish with a SL of 10 points and a target of 70 points.

d) Around 5230, we will be bullish with a SL of 10 points and a target of 70 points.

Happy Trading !!! 

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