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Monday 27 February 2012

Nifty - 27 Feb 2012 - Fall may continue

The Nifty may continue its downtrend amidst bouts of volatility.

As discussed on Friday, it turned out to be a trendsetting day, with some follow up selling appearing on the Nifty, and the Nifty closing the day with a loss of 54 points. With the Bears tasting some blood, our view is that the Bears may gain some momentum going forward, unless the Bulls come into action today.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +97 to +83 Bear Power rising from +21 to -33, indicating that the Bears are now in their own territory after a gap of 32 sessions, and if they don't give it away easily now, we are in for a downtrend that can continue for quite a few sessions.

2) The Nifty is now trading below the 8 and 13 EMAs however, it is still above its key DMAs. The 200 DMA has resumed its downtrend.

3) The stochastics are now in the neutral zone, and are pointing downwards, indicating continuation of the down fall.



4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased tremendously in Friday's fall, indicating the participation of the Bears. The MACD is showing clear signals of a downtrend forming and the ADX has just stop of indicating a fresh signal. The Parabolic SAR is indicating a downtrend which can gain momentum in days to come.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under

a) Around 5445, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5460 and a target of 5385. We will add to these short positions below 5360.

b) Around 5370, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5360 and a target of 5410. We will add to these long positions only above 5480.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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