AD Code

Wednesday 1 February 2012

Nifty - 01 Feb 2012 - Roadblocks ahead

With Nifty poised near key resistances, the bull run may run into roadblocks

As discussed yesterday, instead of the intraday volatility, the daily volatility increased, and we saw the Nifty recovering the entire losses of Monday, within just one trading session. This move has bolstered the bulls who now have the last few roadblocks to jump over. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to have a flat to soft opening.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from +146 to +170, Bear Power reduces from +57 to +75, indicating that the Bulls are still strong, but are weakening, as although the Nifty has recovered all their losses, the Bulls have not recovered all their strength. On the other hand, the Bears are continuing to lose their power, and have not shown any intent of dragging down the Nifty.

2) The key EMAs on the Nifty have resumed their upward movement after a day's pause. The Nifty is trading at the 200 DMA which is consistently falling.

3) The stochastics have returned to the overbought zone and are now pointing upwards.



4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased in yesterday's up-move, confirming the strength of this bull run. However, the MACD is at its peak, while the MACD histogram is showing a negative divergence. The ADX is also showing that the Bull run is weakening.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5180, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5150 and a target of 5260. We will add to these long positions only above 5290.

b) Around 5270, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5285 and a target of 5190. We will add to these short positions only below 5145.

Happy Trading !!! 

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