AD Code

Tuesday 31 January 2012

Nifty - 31 Jan 2012 - Bears arrive

A volatile session lies ahead as the Bears try to take control.

As discussed yesterday, the Hanging Man formation proved to be a cog in the wheel for the Bullish runaway rally witnessed over the past 20 sessions. The Nifty opened in the negative and closed near the day's low, losing 117 points at the end of the session. Today, the volatility is likely to increase as the Bears are not expected to meekly surrender from here.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +208 to +146 Bear Power increases from +154 to +57, indicating that the Bears have gained in strength, and that they are within striking distance from their safety zone. A intraday level below 5020 would bring the Bears into their own territory. Bulls will have to stretch the Nifty to 5160 which would help them to maintain their current strength levels.

2) The Nifty is trading above its key EMAs which have started now to flatten out. The Nifty is also above its 50 & 100 DMAs indicating that the Bull run is still intact.

3) The fast stochastics have moved out of the overbought zone and are now pointing downwards, indicating that a short term bear run might be about to start.



4) In the above chart, the Nifty is seen leaving the upper Bollinger Band, indicating start of a short term bear run. The MACD is seen to be peaking out, confirming the bearish sentiments. The ADX is also indicating the loosening of the up-move and strengthening of the down-move.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5135, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5150 and a target of 5050. We will add to these short positions only below 5000.

b) Around 5040, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5115 and a target of 5095. We will add to these long positions only above 5140.

Happy Trading !!! 

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