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Friday 27 January 2012

Nifty - 27 Jan 2012 - Bulls on the roll

Nifty likely to move higher on a fresh start of a new series.

This is a fresh start to a fresh series. In the last series, the Bears have been butchered all the way with not even one session meaningfully closing in their favor. The Bulls have run away with more than 10% gain in just one month. The trend is likely to continue as per the technical charts.

1) The Elder Ray readings :Bull Power increases from +196 to +198 Bear Power reduces from +104 to +154, indicating that the Bears are just out of the picture, and that the Bulls are having the market swing the way they want to. 

2) The Nifty is trading above all its key EMAs and also above its 50 and 100 DMAs. The 200 DMA which is now at 5210 is in striking distance for the Bulls and could be the next level to watch out for.

3) The stochastics are still in the overbought zone, and have remained so for the last 13 trading sessions. This should become now a key indicator to watch out for a trend reversal.



4) In the above chart, the Nifty has formed a star doji indicating indecision by the Bulls at least. The volumes have risen in last trading session. The Nifty is almost leaving the upper Bollinger Band indicating that a down trend may be in the offing. This is confirmed by the overbought MACD and the rising ADX. However, we will wait for a reversal signal to actually happen before we take that view.

5) Considering the above, we will watch out for 5210 which is the key level for today.

a) Below 5210, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5240 and a target of 5130. We will add to these short positions below 5100 only.

b) Above 5145, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5130 and a target of 5200. We will add to these long positions above 5235 only.

Happy Trading !!! 

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