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Monday 16 January 2012

Nifty - 16 Jan 2012 - Gap down opening

With the dollar index peaking, the Nifty is likely to open and stay in the negative.

As discussed in our last post, the downtrend on the Nifty is likely to resume today. Given the global cues, the S&P downgrading of 9 Euro countries, and the rising dollar index, the Nifty is likely to open with a negative gap and is also likely to trade in the negative for most of the session.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +95 to +112 Bear Power reduces from +30 to +47. Indicating that the Bulls are still in control and they have a challenge to defend 4785 below which the Bears will gain strength.

2) The Nifty is trading above its key EMAs and is also above the its 50 DMA for the first time after over a month. Some profit booking should be expected at these levels.

3) The stochastics are well inside the overbought zone and are pointing towards a down move.



4) In the above chart, the Nifty has formed three stars just below the top Bollinger Band, suggesting indecision among the market participants, even as the volumes are spiking up. This is suggestive of some shorts being added on to the Nifty. The MACD is threatening to peak out, and the ADX too is indicating indecision. A major move should be expected here.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under

a) Above 4810, we will open fresh long positions with a target of 4865 and a SL of 4780. We will add to these long positions only above 4895.

b) Below 4870, we will open fresh short positions with a target of 4820 and a SL of 4885. We will add to these short positions only below 4800.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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