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Wednesday 16 November 2011

Nifty - 16 Nov 2011 - Sell on rally to continue

Sell on Rally is the mantra for the time being.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened gap down and stayed down for most of the trading session, before closing at our suggested support levels of 5070. The Nifty showed a high of 5159, which again was our suggested level for opening fresh shorts. Today, the Nifty is likely to open flat, and then some short covering can be expected. However, "sell on rally" still remains the mantra for the time being as of now.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +26 to -25 Bear Power increases from -63 to -131. This indicates that the Bears are having a good grip on the Nifty, and that the Bulls are slipping down.

2) The EMAs continue to point downwards. However, the near term EMAs are still trading above the far EMAs, which is a positive for the Bulls. Also, the Nifty has closed exactly at the 50 DMA, which also indicates some sort of support for the Nifty. The 100 and 200 DMAs also continue to point downwards.

3) The fast stochastics have just entered the oversold zone, with the slow stochastics lagging just behind. This indicates, that there is still some more room for the Nifty to fall down.



4) In the above chart, the Bollinger Bands also suggest some more room for the nifty to climb down. The MACD and the ADX are showing that the downward movement is gaining momentum and that it is sustainable.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5025, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5000 and a target of 5120. We will add to these long positions only above 5160.

b) Around 5110, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5135 and a target of 5030. We will add to these short positions only below 4980.

Happy Trading !!! 


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