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Tuesday 11 October 2011

Nifty - 11 Oct 2011 - Bulls on the roll

Bullish trend to continue for now

In yesterday's post, we had mentioned that the Nifty can demonstrate a bullish trend, citing the stochastics in the oversold zone. The Nifty did close at 4980 which was our resistance for yesterday. Today, however, riding on global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a large gap up opening. It is also possible that the Nifty may test the higher end of the current range at 5150 within the next 2 to 3 trading sessions, if it is able to cross the near term resistance of 5040 decisively.

1)  The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +17 to +75 Bear Power reduces from -44 to -34. This shows that although the Bulls are gaining strength, the Bears are still safe in the negative zone, and it will be hard work for the Bulls in the coming sessions. 

2) The near term moving averages have started flattening out, which suggest a slowing down of the downtrend and support for the bulls. However, the ATR has risen 10 points in the last two trading sessions, which indicates increase in volatility.

3) The stochastics are right in the middle of the overbought and oversold range, but are pointing upwards.



4) In the above chart, the MACD is still in negative and is flattening out from its rising position. This is an early sign of bears waiting eagerly to strike. The ADX is also converging. The Nifty is also right in the center of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that it will start meeting some resistance at higher levels.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is with a positive bias, but with caution.

a) The market is likely to open with a strong positive gap.

b) We will open long positions 20 points above the opening mark with a target of 5110 and a SL 20 points below the opening mark. If the risk reward ratio, does not justify this trade, we will skip the trade. Above 5110, we will add to these long positions with a target of 5160.

c) If the opening mark remains the day high for the first two hours of the trading session, we will open short positions with a target of 4910 and a SL 20 points above the opening mark. 

d) Near 5100, we will open positional shorts with a SL of 5170 and a target of 4910 as we are still in a long to medium term downtrend.

Needless to say, that we will take positions, with whichever scenario happens first.

Today's trading range expected for above plan , 4980 5100 

Happy Trading !!! 

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