AD Code

Thursday 29 December 2011

Nifty - 29 Dec 2011 - Selling to continue

With a fresh sell signal emerging on the charts, downtrend on the Nifty to continue.

As discussed yesterday, the downtrend on the Nifty, resumed after a gap of a couple of sessions. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open in the negative and in a few sessions from now, is likely to head for targets much below the recent lows.

1)  The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +51 to +13 Bear Power increases from -26 to -58. The Elder Ray suggests that the best time to initiate short positions, is when Bull Power is in the positive and declining. It should be coupled with the 13EMA pointing downwards. We feel, this is a fresh sell signal generated by the Elder Ray today.

2) All the EMAs and the DMAs are pointing downwards now.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone, right in the center of the overbought and oversold zones.



4) In the above chart, the Bollinger Bands have gone horizontal, suggesting increased consolidation. The width of the Bollinger Bands is suggesting high volatility, which is in favour of the Bears. The MACD is suggesting resumption of the downtrend, whereas the ADX has just generated a fresh sustainable sell signal.

5) Being the day of a series expiry, we would be trading in the next series futures.

6) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Below 4700, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4740 and a target of 4585. We will add to these short positions only below 4555.

b) We will refrain from opening any long positions for the day. However, above 4785, we will open fresh long positions with a target of 4845 and a holding period for a couple of sessions.

Happy Trading !!! 

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