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Friday 16 December 2011

Nifty - 16 Dec 2011 - Markets in limbo before monetary policy

RBI monetary policy may stoke volatility in a already falling market.

As discussed yesterday, the selling spree continued on the Nifty, but as it approached key support levels, we saw a bounce back, which again met with selling and was not able to cross our stop loss levels. Today, with the RBI announcing its monetary policy, the markets may see whipsawing volatility. 

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -37 to -89 Bear Power rises from -126 to -184, indicating that the Bears have now regained their control and again pushed down the bulls below water. 

2) The EMAs and the DMAs continue to hint at the downtrend continuing.

3) The stochastics are almost touching the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for downside to the Nifty.



4) In the above chart, the MACD is signalling a sell and the ADX is supporting this sell signal.  The Bollinger Bands are also stretching downwards, indicating a fall in the coming sessions on the Nifty.

5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under

a) Around 4770, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4795 and a target of 4695. We will add to these short positions only below 4665.

b) Around 4690, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4660 and a target of 4750. We will add to these long positions only above 4805. 

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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