AD Code

Tuesday 13 December 2011

Nifty - 13 Dec 2011 - Retest of lows likely today

Nifty may test recent lows of 4650 today and stage a bounce back from there

As discussed yesterday, it was sell on rise all through the trading session. Every time the Nifty tried to recover, it was punched down heavily by the Bears, and it closed near its low at 4765. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open in the negative, and as said above, it is likely to retest its recent lows of 4650.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -18 to -1 Bear Power also rises from -94 to -156. This indicates that the Bears are now in full control of the market and that the Bulls, who are trying to claw back to their territory, are still having their heads down.

2) The EMAs are pointing downwards and the DMAs are stacked in favour of the Bears.

3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards, indicating there is still further room for a down side to the Nifty.



4) In the above chart, the volumes in yesterday's fall have depleted, indicating that the fall may be arrested for a while. However, the MACD histogram is about to go in the negative and the MACD trend line is threatening to give out a fresh sell signal. The ADX is also showing a rise in the down trend, but is nearing unsustainable levels.

5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under

a) Around 4780, we will open fresh short positions, with a SL of 4810 and a target of 4680. We will add to these short positions only below 4655.

b) Around 4670, we will open fresh long positions, with a SL of 4655 and a target of 4760. We will add to these long positions only above 4810.

Happy Trading !!! 

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