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Wednesday 7 December 2011

Nifty - 07 Dec 11 - Rangebound consolidation ahead

Nifty may trade in a confined range with a positive bias.

As discussed in our last post, the Nifty continued with its up-move amidst profit taking bouts. The same trend may continue for a few sessions from now on. However, a big move may just be round the corner, and we intend to be ready for that by waiting patiently and observing "No Trading" zones. A bit of technical analysis will clear our observation.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +152 to +126 Bear Power also reduces from +8 to +73. This clearly shows that both the Bulls and the Bears have lost strength, and hence, the market is directionless without any driver. This raises the chances of a big move in either direction within a few trading sessions, as one of them will take charge of the markets.

2) The EMAs are pointing upwards and the nifty is trading above its 50 DMA which is at 5018. This will be the pivot point to watch.

3) The fast stochastics are now well in the overbought zone. However, the slow stochastics are hovering just below the overbought zone, indicating room for an up-move still.



4) In the above chart, the Nifty has formed a "Doji" after a significant up-move, indicating that a change in trend might be on the cards. The volumes in the last trading session have depleted, showing lack of interest by trading participants in the market. The MACD is supportive of a up-move, however the ADX is indicating loss of steam for the up-move and lack of strength for the down-move.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under

a) Around 5025, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5010 and a target of 5070. We will add to these long positions only above 5090.

b) Around 5075, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5095 and a target of 5020. We will add to these short positions only below 5000.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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