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Monday 21 November 2011

Nifty - 21 Nov 2011 - Whipsaw starts before expiry

Volatility may see a marked increase. But selling pressure to continue on the Nifty

As discussed on Friday, the Nifty continued to witness selling pressure throughout the trading session, before marching a bounce-back towards the end. However, the Nifty could not cross the previous day's close and ended in the red despite desperate efforts by the Bulls. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to have a flat to negative opening. Also, considering the expiry of the current series in this week, the volatility may see a marked increase today.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -93 to -182. Bear Power rises from -210 to -260. Indications are that the Bears still have their stranglehold on the Nifty and that the Bulls are grasping to recover lost grounds. 

2) The EMAs are pointing downwards, and the near EMA has crossed the near DMA in the downward direction, generating its own fresh sell signal.

3) The stochastics are in the oversold zone, but are showing no signs of a pull back yet.



4) In the above chart, the MACD and the ADX are continuing to point towards sustainable selling pressure on the Nifty. However, the Bollinger Bands are suggesting a small bounce-back. 

5) Much will depend on today's closing values of the Nifty, making today's trade a clue for the direction on the Nifty prior to expiry of the current series.

6) Based on the above, our trading plan for the day is as under

a) Around 4930, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4955 and a target of 4865. We will add to these short positions below 4830. 

b) Around 4845, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4810 and a target of 4930. We will add to these long positions above 4965 only.

Happy Trading !!! 

For cash market recommendations see our Daily Pre Market calls on NSE

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