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Wednesday 2 November 2011

Nifty - 02 Nov 2011 - Downtrend to continue

Nifty may synchronize with the global turmoil and resume its downtrend

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty opened below 5320 and then tried to fill the gaps till 5220 showing a low of 5238 before shutting shop at 5258. Today, again given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a gap down and likely to test the supports at 5210 and 5175. On the up side, the first resistance will be at 5258 and then at 5320.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +204 to +140 Bear Power increases from +159 to +68. This indicates that the Bulls are losing their grip while the Bears are gaining strength. However, the Bears are still in the positive zone and this makes them vulnerable.

2) The EMAs have started showing initial signs for weakness and are just about to flatten out. The 100 and 200 DMAs are still pointing downwards.

3) The stochastics are confirming the downtrend and are just about to leave the overbought zone.



4) In the above chart, volumes are depleting in the current fall in prices, indicating that the current fall is not strong enough to continue for long. The MACD is rising and is in the positive. The ADX is indicating a fall in the uptrend and a rise in the downtrend. Yet the +ADX is still above the -ADX and a fresh sell signal has not yet emanated. 

5) Nifty has strong supports at 5210 and 5175, from where a bounce back is possible.

6) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.

a) Near 5210 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5190 and a target of  5260. We will add to these long positions only above 5290.

b) Around 5265 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5285 and a target of 5210. We will add to these short positions only below 5175.

c) We will take the opportunities as and when they come and we will trail our stop loss to preserve whatever profits are generated.

Happy Trading !!! 

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