AD Code

Tuesday 20 September 2011

Nifty - 20 Sept 2011 - Breakdown seems iminent now

Fast fall below 4980

As discussed yesterday, the rally really seems to have exhausted. The Bulls never could get the Nifty above the opening mark of 5068, however, they very well defended 5000 for the day. Given the global market cues, the Nifty is slated to open weak, and the Bulls will have a tough task of keeping it in the green.

1) The renewed Elder Ray Readings : Bull Power reduced from +112 to +36. Bear Power increased from +36 to -12. Indicates that the Bears have regained their breath and are now getting ready to strike, whereas the Bulls have exhausted their energy.

2) The moving averages are not showing any signs of turning upwards, with the important 13 Ema forming a lower top.

3) Yesterday, we had suggested that a close below 5040 might confirm a downtrend, and the Nifty closed at 5032 just below that level.



4) In the above chart, MACD histogram is flattening. The ADX shows that the Bullish trend is falling and the Bearish trend is rising.

5) Given the above, our reading is that the Nifty could well consolidate in a extremely narrow range of 4980 5030 for most part of the trading session. However, a fall below 4980 can accelerate the downtrend and 4930 4900 could well be tested today.

6) Trading plan : Go short around 5015 with a SL of 5040 and a target of 4980. Add to shorts below 4960 with a target of 4920. Cut all shorts above 5050. No plans for going long for the day.

Happy trading. 

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