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Tuesday 6 September 2011

Nifty 06 Sept 2011 - Bearishness creeping in

Bearishness starts creeping in the Nifty

Although the nifty formed a green candle with a long bottom tail, making it appear that bulls have retained their control, here are some facts that could help proving otherwise.

1) There were 13 new 52 week highs as against 49 new 52 week lows on 5th Sept 2011. In a bullish market, the new highs have got to be higher than the new lows. NHNL is a key indicator.

2) As per the Elder Ray, the BullPower has reduced from 130 to 42 whereas the BearPower has increased from 9 to -24 (Negative values for BearPower have greater significance)


3) There are only 19 Stocks ( 2 from Nifty 50) whose last close > 7DMA > 30 DMA > 50 DMA > 100DMA making them positive. Whereas there are 44 (6 from Nifty 50) Stocks whose last close < 7DMA < 30DMA < 50DMA <100DMA making them laggards.


3) In the chart above, the Bollinger is clearly pointing downwards and the 20 EMA has started showing some resistance.


4) The ADX in the above chart, which had given a fresh buy signal a couple of sessions ago, has now started signalling a fresh Sell.


5) Today's rise from the lows of around 4960 has happened at relatively low volumes and it is to be noted that US has a holiday today on account of Labor day.


6) Global equity markets have seen downfalls ranging from 2% to 5% today.


Considering all this, our opinion is that the Nifty is getting ready for a bearish move in the next couple of sessions. We, at our end have initiated a fresh short position today at 5015 with a target of 4850 and a stop loss of 5045

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