Nifty - 02 May 2014 - Volatile end of week

Nifty travels 123 points intraday increasing volatility. End of week may see more of it.

As discussed on Wednesday, Bulls needed to hold fort, which they did for most of the morning during the trading session, failed in the later part and recovered in the dying moments. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 10 points at 6725 and then saw a up move towards 6775 but got stopped at 6773 and then we saw some consolidation with the Nifty gyrating between 6760 and 6770. The Nifty briefly touched 6780 too, attempting a breakout. However, the Bears took over in the afternoon session and the Nifty plunged 120 points and more to make a intraday low of 6657, just above our identified breakdown point of 6655, and then in the dying moments of trade the Nifty recovered most of the losses to close at  6696 with a loss of 19 points. We lost 25 points in one trade and are holding another trade initiated at 6670 where we are in unrealized profit of 33 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +27 to +36 Bear Power also rises from -44 to -88 indicative of a rising volatility with the bias tilted towards the Bears. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6780 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6645 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards, indicating room for a further down move.

3) The Nifty has now closed below all its key EMAs but has closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 30 Apr 2014 - Bulls need to hold fort

With three consecutive days of sell off, Bulls need to protect 6700 aggressively.

As discussed yesterday, and considering the equilibrium that we had reached, we expected the Consolidation to continue, on the Nifty. The Bears however, had different ideas. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 8 points at 6769 and made a quick high of 6780 where the Bears struck in the first 15 minutes of trade and the Nifty plunged all the way down to 6711. From thereon, the consolidation started and the Nifty slowly crawled upwards and traded within a confined range of 6720 and 6750 for most of the trading session. A late attempt to recover got thwarted around 6765 and the Nifty again plunged downwards to breach the intraday low and make a new low of 6709 before closing at 6715 with a loss of 46 points. We took a trade on the long side as per our trading plan and could book out with a profit of 40 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power stagnates at +27 Bear Power rises from -8 to -44 indicating that the Bears are getting stronger but the Bulls cannot be ruled out as yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6780 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6700 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are still in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has taken support at its 21EMA(6712) but has closed below its 13EMA(6752) and 8EMA(6765). The Nifty has closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 29 Apr 2014 - Consolidation continues

Nifty gyrates within a 36 point range whole of yesterday, stays neutral consolidating.

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty did test the rising support levels, amidst a listless trading session. The Nifty opened with a negative gap down of 4 points at 6779 and then gyrated between the highs of 6786 and the lows of 6750 for the entire session. The Nifty however, closed weak at 6761 losing 22 points over its previous close.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +112 to +28 Bear Power rises from +15 to -8 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are in their respective zones bringing neutrality on the Nifty at this point of time. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6790 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6745 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has again closed below its 8EMA(6779) but has closed above its 13EMA(6759) and 21EMA(6712) also the Nifty has closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 28 Apr 2014 - Test of rising support lines

Post a prolonged upmove, Bulls turn to profit booking. Nifty ready to test supports.

As discussed on Friday, "Bulls maintained their advantage" but for a very short time and that too in the opening few minutes of trade. The Nifty opened at 6856 with a positive gap up of 15 points and rushed to make a high of 6870 (our identified resistance level) and then got sold off to breach 6820 within the first hour of trade. The Nifty then traded between 6845 and 6820 for another couple of hours or so. After mid afternoon, the downmove accelerated and the Nifty breached 6800 and traded between 6780 and 6795 for the rest of the trading session, breaching the day lows twice. The Nifty made a intraday low of 6773 before closing at 6783 with a loss of 58 points against its previous close.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +108 to +112 Bear Power also rises from +67 to +15 indicating that the Bears have now recovered a lot but the Bulls still hold the key to the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6875 to maintain their upward momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6760 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics have moved out of the overbought zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has now closed below its 8EMA(6784) but has closed above its 13EMA and 21EMA. The Nifty has also closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 25 Apr 2014 - Bulls maintain their advantage

At the start of a fresh series, Bulls hold sway after closing nifty at yet another high.

As discussed on Wednesday, we saw "Expiry Jitters" on the Nifty with the Nifty making the intraday high and the intraday low within the first 4 minutes of trade and keeping traders guessing for the outcome till day end. The Nifty opened with a 8 point positive gap up at 6823 and made that quick high of 6862 at the blink of an eye and also that low of 6821 within the next 2 minutes of trading. The Nifty then dragged itself within these two levels for the entire trading session before closing at 6841 with high volumes identifiable to the series expiry. We could not trade as the Nifty kept whipsawing itself.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +98 to +108 Bear Power remains stagnant at +67 indicating that the Bulls still hold the advantage to themselves. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6875 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6765 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are well into the overbought zone now.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 23 Apr 2014 - Expiry Jitters

On expiry day, overbought Nifty stays bullish, appearing to aim at 6900 if not more.

As discussed yesterday, we saw "Bulls cling onto their advantage", and not let the Nifty slip below 6805 (our identified support zone) while swaying wildly within a confined range of just 32 points. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 5 points at 6823 and made a high of 6838 and a low of 6806 before closing at 6815, keeping the inclination towards the Bulls. We did not participate in the trade as none of our trading plans triggered.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power stagnates at +98 Bear Power reduces from +60 to +67 indicating that the Bulls have maintained their advantage and that the Bears have lost further grounds. For today the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 6850 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 6755 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are back into the overbought zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.