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Tuesday, 20 August 2013

Nifty - 20 Aug 2013 - Short it Forget it !!!

Bears decimate Bulls as the Nifty continues to plunge. Downfall may accelerate. 

As discussed yesterday, the Nifty remained in a choppy bearishness atmosphere. The Nifty opened with a negative gap down of 10 points at 5498 and almost immediately plunged 75 points to reach the first hour low of 5422 and that is where the choppiness entered. The Nifty then traded with volatile moves remaining above 5400 for the first 3 hours of trade. After that however, the Nifty breached the 5400 level to make a low of 5361 before closing at 5415 with a loss of 93 points. We took two trades on the short side and booked a total profit of 65 points in those two trades.

Summary : The Nifty remained choppy throughout the day. This fact is underscored by the fact that every hour the Nifty made a high that was above 5400 and every hour the trading range was above 30 points. However, the technicals remain negative and the down move may continue.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +39 to -140 Bear Power rises from -181 to -279 indicating the swiftness with which the Bulls have got butchered. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 5605 to regain their lost grounds whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 5325 to maintain their downwards momentum. 

2) The fast stochastics are in the oversold zone while the slow stochastics are nearing it and pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty continues to close below all its key EMAs and also below all its key DMAs. The 200DMA has started moving downwards, signalling a long term bearish environment.

 


4) In the above chart, the volumes have decreased with the fall in the Nifty indicating that the fall may get arrested. The MACD has renewed its down move. The histogram has again started growing in the negative. The ADX is suggesting a rise in the Bearish momentum with the overall momentum also on the rise. The Parabolic SAR has again turned into a Sell signal (within two trading sessions) with a SL of 5755.

5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.

a) Around 5435 we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5455 and a target of 5345. We will add to these short positions only below 5325.

b) Around 5335 we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 5325 and a target of 5415. We will add to these long positions only above 5455.

Happy Trading !!! 

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7 comments:

  1. sir
    any chances of creating long as per b ,or the big trend continues

    shivam

    ReplyDelete
  2. Opened fresh long position at 5328 with a SL of 5300 as per trading plan(b)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Squared off long positions at 5370 booking profit of 42 points.

    Waiting for re-entry.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Very good trade and great support sir, thanks for your support.

    Vijay.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Nifty has entered overbought zone on the 15 min. chart and seems to be stalling.

    Opened fresh short position at 5375 with a SL of 5395.

    Also to be noted is nifty futures premium has been smoked out all together.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Trading plan(b) works out to the dot.

    Over analyses makes us regret once more.

    ReplyDelete

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