The fresh series may open positive, but bears could take over soon
As discussed yesterday, selling continued on the Nifty throughout the session and the Nifty closed at 4646 before touching our resistance levels of 4700. Today, given the global cues, and considering that this is a fresh start to a fresh series, the Nifty may trade in the positive, but then bears would strike soon and with venom.
1) The Elder Ray readings :Bull Power reduces from +13 to -28 Bear Power increases from -56 to -90, showing that the Bears are regaining their strength, and that the downtrend may continue now.
2) The EMAs and the DMAs are now all pointing downwards and are stacked to indicate a bear market.
3) The stochastics are pointing downwards and are some distance away from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for another fall on the Nifty.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased in yesterday's fall indicating sustainability to the downtrend. This downtrend is also getting confirmation on the MACD and the ADX.
5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.
a) Below 4730, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4760 and a target of 4630. We will add to these short positions only below 4610.
b) Around 4625, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4610 and a target of 4675. We will add to these long positions only above 4785.
The fresh series may open positive, but bears could take over soon
As discussed yesterday, selling continued on the Nifty throughout the session and the Nifty closed at 4646 before touching our resistance levels of 4700. Today, given the global cues, and considering that this is a fresh start to a fresh series, the Nifty may trade in the positive, but then bears would strike soon and with venom.
1) The Elder Ray readings :Bull Power reduces from +13 to -28 Bear Power increases from -56 to -90, showing that the Bears are regaining their strength, and that the downtrend may continue now.
2) The EMAs and the DMAs are now all pointing downwards and are stacked to indicate a bear market.
3) The stochastics are pointing downwards and are some distance away from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for another fall on the Nifty.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased in yesterday's fall indicating sustainability to the downtrend. This downtrend is also getting confirmation on the MACD and the ADX.
5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.
a) Below 4730, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4760 and a target of 4630. We will add to these short positions only below 4610.
b) Around 4625, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4610 and a target of 4675. We will add to these long positions only above 4785.
With a fresh sell signal emerging on the charts, downtrend on the Nifty to continue.
As discussed yesterday, the downtrend on the Nifty, resumed after a gap of a couple of sessions. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open in the negative and in a few sessions from now, is likely to head for targets much below the recent lows.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +51 to +13 Bear Power increases from -26 to -58. The Elder Ray suggests that the best time to initiate short positions, is when Bull Power is in the positive and declining. It should be coupled with the 13EMA pointing downwards. We feel, this is a fresh sell signal generated by the Elder Ray today.
2) All the EMAs and the DMAs are pointing downwards now.
3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone, right in the center of the overbought and oversold zones.
4) In the above chart, the Bollinger Bands have gone horizontal, suggesting increased consolidation. The width of the Bollinger Bands is suggesting high volatility, which is in favour of the Bears. The MACD is suggesting resumption of the downtrend, whereas the ADX has just generated a fresh sustainable sell signal.
5) Being the day of a series expiry, we would be trading in the next series futures.
6) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Below 4700, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4740 and a target of 4585. We will add to these short positions only below 4555.
b) We will refrain from opening any long positions for the day. However, above 4785, we will open fresh long positions with a target of 4845 and a holding period for a couple of sessions.
With a fresh sell signal emerging on the charts, downtrend on the Nifty to continue.
As discussed yesterday, the downtrend on the Nifty, resumed after a gap of a couple of sessions. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open in the negative and in a few sessions from now, is likely to head for targets much below the recent lows.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +51 to +13 Bear Power increases from -26 to -58. The Elder Ray suggests that the best time to initiate short positions, is when Bull Power is in the positive and declining. It should be coupled with the 13EMA pointing downwards. We feel, this is a fresh sell signal generated by the Elder Ray today.
2) All the EMAs and the DMAs are pointing downwards now.
3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone, right in the center of the overbought and oversold zones.
4) In the above chart, the Bollinger Bands have gone horizontal, suggesting increased consolidation. The width of the Bollinger Bands is suggesting high volatility, which is in favour of the Bears. The MACD is suggesting resumption of the downtrend, whereas the ADX has just generated a fresh sustainable sell signal.
5) Being the day of a series expiry, we would be trading in the next series futures.
6) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Below 4700, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4740 and a target of 4585. We will add to these short positions only below 4555.
b) We will refrain from opening any long positions for the day. However, above 4785, we will open fresh long positions with a target of 4845 and a holding period for a couple of sessions.
With Nifty stumbling at near resistance, the downtrend is likely to resume today.
As discussed recently, the Nifty traded with extremely depleted volumes and has not been able to sustain above 4785 which is its near time resistance. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a negative bias, which may strengthen the downturn as the session goes by.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from +38 to +51 Bear Power also increases from -31 to -26. This indicates that the Bulls have slowed down and that the Bears are regaining their strength and can be expected to strike back strongly now.
2) The EMAs have started pointing downwards now and the DMAs are anyways coming down.
3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.
4) In the above chart, the volumes are still depleted, and the nifty has gone nowhere in the last two sessions. The MACD is still in the negative and the ADX is showing slowing down of the up-move.
5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.
a) Below 4745, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4785 and a target of 4645. We will add to these short positions only below 4615.
b) Around 4630, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4615 and a target of 4685. We will add to these long positions only above 4785.
With Nifty stumbling at near resistance, the downtrend is likely to resume today.
As discussed recently, the Nifty traded with extremely depleted volumes and has not been able to sustain above 4785 which is its near time resistance. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a negative bias, which may strengthen the downturn as the session goes by.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from +38 to +51 Bear Power also increases from -31 to -26. This indicates that the Bulls have slowed down and that the Bears are regaining their strength and can be expected to strike back strongly now.
2) The EMAs have started pointing downwards now and the DMAs are anyways coming down.
3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.
4) In the above chart, the volumes are still depleted, and the nifty has gone nowhere in the last two sessions. The MACD is still in the negative and the ADX is showing slowing down of the up-move.
5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.
a) Below 4745, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4785 and a target of 4645. We will add to these short positions only below 4615.
b) Around 4630, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4615 and a target of 4685. We will add to these long positions only above 4785.
With the year end expiry nearing, the volatility in the markets can only rise.
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty traded range-bound through most part of the session, before closing near the day's high point. Today, the nifty is likely to open down, and mostly stay down, before the expiry jitters set in.
As the volumes, have depleted greatly in the trade yesterday, any technical analysis would lead to skewed findings, as they will not be supported by the trading sentiment.
Hence, we would not hazard a guess at market movements for the day, and would prefer to wait on the sidelines, before the next direction of the market becomes clear.
With the year end expiry nearing, the volatility in the markets can only rise.
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty traded range-bound through most part of the session, before closing near the day's high point. Today, the nifty is likely to open down, and mostly stay down, before the expiry jitters set in.
As the volumes, have depleted greatly in the trade yesterday, any technical analysis would lead to skewed findings, as they will not be supported by the trading sentiment.
Hence, we would not hazard a guess at market movements for the day, and would prefer to wait on the sidelines, before the next direction of the market becomes clear.
The nifty may remain rangebound in a volatile market.
As discussed on Friday, the whipsaw like movements in the Nifty continued, with the Nifty opening in the positive, and closing slightly in the negative after trading in a 70 point range. Today, given the global cues, again the nifty is likely to open with a positive bias, but is likely to meet stiff resistance soon.
1) The Elder Ray readings :Bull Power rises from -9 to +19 Bear Power reduces from -116 to -51, indicating that the Bulls have now fully recovered their lost ground, but they look exhausted for now. A bit of consolidation might inject some energy for the Bulls. On the other hand, the Bears have been watching the show from the sidelines, and may strike soon.
2) Only the near EMA is flat, else all the EMAs and the DMAs continue to point downwards.
3) The fast stochastics have turned downwards again, and point to a revisit to the oversold zone soon.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have depleted, suggesting the current rise might not sustain. The MACD is threatening to turn down again, and all the efforts by the Bulls have not been able to generate a fresh buy signal on the ADX.
5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.
a) Around 4765, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4800 and a target of 4665. We will add to these short positions only below 4625.
b) Around 4645, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4630 and a target of 4725. We will add to these long positions only above 4810.
The nifty may remain rangebound in a volatile market.
As discussed on Friday, the whipsaw like movements in the Nifty continued, with the Nifty opening in the positive, and closing slightly in the negative after trading in a 70 point range. Today, given the global cues, again the nifty is likely to open with a positive bias, but is likely to meet stiff resistance soon.
1) The Elder Ray readings :Bull Power rises from -9 to +19 Bear Power reduces from -116 to -51, indicating that the Bulls have now fully recovered their lost ground, but they look exhausted for now. A bit of consolidation might inject some energy for the Bulls. On the other hand, the Bears have been watching the show from the sidelines, and may strike soon.
2) Only the near EMA is flat, else all the EMAs and the DMAs continue to point downwards.
3) The fast stochastics have turned downwards again, and point to a revisit to the oversold zone soon.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have depleted, suggesting the current rise might not sustain. The MACD is threatening to turn down again, and all the efforts by the Bulls have not been able to generate a fresh buy signal on the ADX.
5) Considering the above, we have devised our trading plan for the day as under.
a) Around 4765, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4800 and a target of 4665. We will add to these short positions only below 4625.
b) Around 4645, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4630 and a target of 4725. We will add to these long positions only above 4810.
Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.
