After a rise of 290 points in 4 trading sessions, some profit booking looks due.
As discussed yesterday, "No clear breakout signals yet", there was a clear zone of resistance at 5060 5090 levels, and the Nifty was unable to cross that zone, and the trading range was limited to 50 points. Today, given that the weekly trend is against the daily trend, some profit booking is expected.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from +87 to +119 Bear Power reduces from -37 to +67, indicating that now the Bulls have gained control and the Bears have lost their grounds. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5080 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach below 4960 to regain their lost grounds.
2) The Nifty is still trading right between its key EMAs and its key DMAs, indicating that the daily trend is upwards however the short term trend remains downwards.
3) The fast stochastics are now well in the overbought zone, but the slow stochastics are just below and pointing upwards.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have slightly dipped with the narrowing trading range on the Nifty indicating a period of consolidation. The MACD is rising indicating that the uptrend is intact as yet. The ADX is now signalling a upwards trend, but the momentum slowing down. The Parabolic SAR continues with its buy signal.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5010, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4990 and a target of 5080. We will add to these long positions only above 5110.
b) Around 5080, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5105 and a target of 5015. We will add to these short positions only below 4990.
After a rise of 290 points in 4 trading sessions, some profit booking looks due.
As discussed yesterday, "No clear breakout signals yet", there was a clear zone of resistance at 5060 5090 levels, and the Nifty was unable to cross that zone, and the trading range was limited to 50 points. Today, given that the weekly trend is against the daily trend, some profit booking is expected.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power increases from +87 to +119 Bear Power reduces from -37 to +67, indicating that now the Bulls have gained control and the Bears have lost their grounds. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5080 to maintain their upwards momentum, whereas the Bears need to breach below 4960 to regain their lost grounds.
2) The Nifty is still trading right between its key EMAs and its key DMAs, indicating that the daily trend is upwards however the short term trend remains downwards.
3) The fast stochastics are now well in the overbought zone, but the slow stochastics are just below and pointing upwards.
The nifty staged a smart rally yesterday. But needs to overcome near term road blocks.
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty came out of its "Sluggish Consolidation", and straight away set up the stage for a breakout. Within blink of an eye, it crossed 4925, which was identified buy us as a level where we would add fresh long positions, and then never really looked back. Today given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a positive gap up, and continue the rally. However, there are some roadblocks in the 5060 5090 zone, which need to be overcome.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -12 to +87 Bear Power reduces from -63 to -37 indicating that the Bulls have gained the momentum on their side but the Bears need not be counted out yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5025 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach below 4890 to maintain their downwards momentum. This wide range needs to be kept in mind for few trading sessions.
2) The Nifty is now trading above all its key EMAs but below all its key DMAs. The 50 DMA is just about to cross the 200 DMA on the downside within a couple of sessions, if the current rally fizzles out.
3) The fast stochastics are already in the overbought zone, but the slow stochastics are far behind and pointing upwards.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have increased in yesterday's rise in the Nifty, indicating good sustainability to this up move. The MACD has again started rising from the negative. The ADX is suggesting equal weight-age to both the Bulls and the Bears. The Parabolic SAR has now turned from Sell into a Buy.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 5065, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 5095 and a target of 4970. We will add to these short positions only below 4950.
b) Around 4970, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4955 and a target of 5050. We will add to these long positions only above 5100.
The nifty staged a smart rally yesterday. But needs to overcome near term road blocks.
As discussed yesterday, the Nifty came out of its "Sluggish Consolidation", and straight away set up the stage for a breakout. Within blink of an eye, it crossed 4925, which was identified buy us as a level where we would add fresh long positions, and then never really looked back. Today given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open with a positive gap up, and continue the rally. However, there are some roadblocks in the 5060 5090 zone, which need to be overcome.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -12 to +87 Bear Power reduces from -63 to -37 indicating that the Bulls have gained the momentum on their side but the Bears need not be counted out yet. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 5025 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach below 4890 to maintain their downwards momentum. This wide range needs to be kept in mind for few trading sessions.
2) The Nifty is now trading above all its key EMAs but below all its key DMAs. The 50 DMA is just about to cross the 200 DMA on the downside within a couple of sessions, if the current rally fizzles out.
3) The fast stochastics are already in the overbought zone, but the slow stochastics are far behind and pointing upwards.
Nifty continues to grind into a consolidation. Today's range could be 4835 4900.
As discussed yesterday, "Nifty enters consolidation mode", the Nifty traded within a confined range of 50 points, with a bullish bias, as it was in the positive zone for most of the day. However, in the end, it lost all the gains. Today again it seems, would be a similar day.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -60 to -12 Bear Power reduces from -148 to -63, indicating that though the Bulls are gaining some strength, they have a lot to do yet, and the Bears are still in their safe zone. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4900 to regain their safety, whereas the Bears need to breach 4835 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty continues to trade well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.
3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone, with the slow stochastics pointing upwards and the fast stochastics pointing downwards, indicating indecision in the market participants.
4) In the above chart, the volumes are decreasing with the nifty rising. The MACD has shown a positive divergence indicating a up move. The ADX is also suggesting loss in the down move and rise in the up move momentum. The Parabolic SAR is continuing with its sell signal.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Around 4900, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4925 and a target of 4835. We will add to these short positions only below 4810.
b) Around 4840, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4830 and a target of 4900. We will add to these long positions only above 4925.
Nifty continues to grind into a consolidation. Today's range could be 4835 4900.
As discussed yesterday, "Nifty enters consolidation mode", the Nifty traded within a confined range of 50 points, with a bullish bias, as it was in the positive zone for most of the day. However, in the end, it lost all the gains. Today again it seems, would be a similar day.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from -60 to -12 Bear Power reduces from -148 to -63, indicating that though the Bulls are gaining some strength, they have a lot to do yet, and the Bears are still in their safe zone. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4900 to regain their safety, whereas the Bears need to breach 4835 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty continues to trade well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.
3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone, with the slow stochastics pointing upwards and the fast stochastics pointing downwards, indicating indecision in the market participants.
The Nifty is now consolidating after breaching previous lows. Today's close critical.
As discussed yesterday, "The Bearish mood" persisted on the bourses in the morning session, with the Nifty opening negative by 45 points and then breaking previous lows to reach 4770. After that however, when the Bears could no further breach the day's lows, the trend reversed and as per our trading plan (a), the nifty overcame 4780 and then reached 4840 which was our target. Today, the Nifty is likely to open flat to positive, and the up move will depend greatly on the follow up action by the bulls.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -5 to -60 Bear Power increases from -99 to -148, indicating that despite yesterday's recovery, the bulls have actually lost grounds and the bears are still in control over the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4905 to regain their safe zone, whereas the Bears need to breach below 4755 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty continues to trade below all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.
3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and the fast & slow stochastics are pointing against each other, indicating a possibility of a two way move today.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have slightly decreased in yesterday's rise on the Nifty. The MACD is showing negative divergence, and the histogram is also falling. The ADX is suggesting a growing momentum with a bias towards the Bears. The Parabolic SAR is continuing with its sell signal.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) At 4825, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4800 and a target of 4885. We will add to these long positions only above 4915.
b) At 4885, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4910 and a target of 4825. We will add to these short positions only below 4800.
c) If our trades do not get triggered today, the bearish signals for the near term will get confirmed and we will open fresh positional short positions at the day end.
The Nifty is now consolidating after breaching previous lows. Today's close critical.
As discussed yesterday, "The Bearish mood" persisted on the bourses in the morning session, with the Nifty opening negative by 45 points and then breaking previous lows to reach 4770. After that however, when the Bears could no further breach the day's lows, the trend reversed and as per our trading plan (a), the nifty overcame 4780 and then reached 4840 which was our target. Today, the Nifty is likely to open flat to positive, and the up move will depend greatly on the follow up action by the bulls.
1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from -5 to -60 Bear Power increases from -99 to -148, indicating that despite yesterday's recovery, the bulls have actually lost grounds and the bears are still in control over the Nifty. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4905 to regain their safe zone, whereas the Bears need to breach below 4755 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty continues to trade below all its key EMAs and all its key DMAs.
3) The stochastics are in the neutral zone and the fast & slow stochastics are pointing against each other, indicating a possibility of a two way move today.
Amidst global turmoil, the Nifty may open gap down and bearish mood may prolong.
As discussed on Friday, there were clear "Bearish Technical Signals", which made the Nifty to open with a mild down gap, then close the gap in the morning trade and then slide down by 90 points from there and close very near to the day's low. Our trading plan (a) got executed to perfection on that day. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open again with a negative gap down, but as discussed in our weekly review, there are many supports at these levels between 4720 and 4780, where the fall could get arrested.
1) The Elder Ray Readings : Bull Power reduces from +4 to -5 Bear Power rises from -62 to -99, indicating that the Bears now have the control over the Nifty and that the Bearish mood is likely to persist for a while. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4915 to regain their lost territory, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 4810 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty is trading well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.
3) The stochastics are now in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards, indicating that there is some more room for the fall on Nifty.
4) In the above chart, the volumes have again fallen during the fall on the Nifty, indicating that the fall may get arrested soon. The MACD as indicated on Friday, has started falling again and the histogram has also started falling. The ADX is also indicating a bias to the down move, but is also indicating a loss in momentum. The Parabolic SAR, as suggested on Friday, has turned from Buy into a Sell signal.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the day is as under.
a) Above 4780, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4760 and a target of 4840. We will add to these long positions only above 4870.
b) Below 4840, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4865 and a target of 4780. We will add to these short positions only below 4760.
Amidst global turmoil, the Nifty may open gap down and bearish mood may prolong.
As discussed on Friday, there were clear "Bearish Technical Signals", which made the Nifty to open with a mild down gap, then close the gap in the morning trade and then slide down by 90 points from there and close very near to the day's low. Our trading plan (a) got executed to perfection on that day. Today, given the global cues, the Nifty is likely to open again with a negative gap down, but as discussed in our weekly review, there are many supports at these levels between 4720 and 4780, where the fall could get arrested.
1) The Elder Ray Readings : Bull Power reduces from +4 to -5 Bear Power rises from -62 to -99, indicating that the Bears now have the control over the Nifty and that the Bearish mood is likely to persist for a while. For today, the Bulls need to overcome 4915 to regain their lost territory, whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 4810 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty is trading well below its key EMAs and its key DMAs.
3) The stochastics are now in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards, indicating that there is some more room for the fall on Nifty.
Our last weekly review said "After a choppy week, the Bears still in control of the Nifty, at start of the expiry week." and we saw that unfold on Friday.
The forthcoming week is likely to see more action on the Nifty front and a good trading plan after some detailed technical analysis is the need of the hour.
1) The Elder Ray readings : On a weekly basis, Bull Power increased from -152 to -50 and Bear Power reduced from -304 to -239, indicating that though the Bears seem to be in control, they are losing some momentum, and the Bulls are slowly regrouping. For the next week, the Bulls need to overcome 5070 to return to safe zone whereas the Bears need to breach the Nifty below 4795 to maintain their downwards momentum.
2) The Nifty is trading well below all its key weekly EMAs and below its 50 week SMA and its 100 week SMA. The 200 week SMA at 4824 could lend some much required support to the Nifty in the short term.
3) In the above chart, the volumes have increased in the fall on the Nifty, indicating sustainability of the down move in the short term. The MACD is in the negative and is almost at the verge of turning upwards, indicating that the Nifty might be bottoming out. The ADX is also indicating a loss of momentum to the downtrend. The Parabolic SAR is continuing to hold out its Sell Signal.
4) The 200 week SMA, the near term lows of 4803 and 4788, and the upward slanting multi-year trend-line support at 4800, forms a cluster of supports, from where the Nifty can bounce back. However, if these supports are breached, then the fall may be fast and deep.
5) Considering the above, our trading plan for the week is as under.
a) Around 4740, we will open fresh long positions with a SL of 4700 and a target of 4880. We will add to these long positions only above 4945.
b) Around 4910, we will open fresh short positions with a SL of 4940 and a target of 4800 and then 4760. We will add to these short positions only below 4700.
c) We expect the weekly trading range to be confined to 4740 to 4940 with extended low and high pinned at 4700 and 4980 respectively, and we will use these extremes to open appropriate positions with a SL of 40 points.
Our last weekly review said "After a choppy week, the Bears still in control of the Nifty, at start of the expiry week.
" and we saw that unfold on Friday.
The forthcoming week is likely to see more action on the Nifty front and a good trading plan after some detailed technical analysis is the need of the hour.
Disclaimer : We express our opinions on this blog primarily as a method of record keeping, i.e. archiving what was our opinion about the markets on any given particular day end. As such, trading in derivatives can be extremely dangerous to you and your finances. We strongly advice you to consult your financial advisor before trading based on the opinions published on this blog. We shall not be held responsible, under any circumstances, for any financial loss or profit, that may be accrued due to your trades being affected by our opinions.
