Nifty - 27 Jun 2014 - Neutral at start of series

Nifty stands neutral at the start of a fresh series, testing key support levels.

As discussed yesterday, we saw "Expiry Jitters" on the trading floor for almost the entire trading session. The series which saw a low of 7118 and a high of 7700, a whopping 600 point range almost, saw profit booking on the last day of the series, as expected. The Nifty opened with a negative gap down of 15 points at 7554 and then made a quick high of 7570, which got negated due to lack of follow through by the Bulls and dipped to our identified support zone around 7515. The Nifty then tried to bounce back from those supports but could climb only up to 7545 and gave away. In the final hour, the Nifty breached those supports and dipped to a low of 7481 before closing at 7493 with a loss of 76 points against its previous close. We took a trade on the long side at 7515 and booked out with a profit of 25 points.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +55 to +42 Bear Power rises from +23 to -47 indicating that the Bears have now regained their territory and both the Bulls and the Bears are now equidistant in their respective safe zones. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7565 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7475 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The fast stochastics are almost touching the oversold zone, but the slow stochastic is lagging behind.

3) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA and 13EMA but has closed above its 21EMA(7478) and also has closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 26 Jun 2014 - Expiry Jitters

Nifty forms NR7 on eve of expiry, with Bulls holding on but lacking follow through.

As discussed yesterday, we saw Bulls retain their control over the Nifty but lacked the follow through that was expected after a emphatic up move post consolidation. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 8 points at 7589 and sheepishly throughout the trading session within a confined range of just 32 points between 7589 and 7557. The Nifty finally closed at 7569 with a loss of 11 points against its previous day close. We took two trades (via CALL options) on the long side and could book a total profit of 35 points in these trades.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +65 to +55 Bear Power also reduces from -13 to +23 indicating that the Bulls have still retained their control and that the Bears are now out of their safe zone. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7595 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7540 to regain their lost grounds.

2) The stochastics are right in the center of the neutral zone.

3) The Nifty continues to close above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 25 Jun 2014 - Bulls take control

Consolidation over, Bulls take control of the Nifty emphatically. Follow up needed.

As discussed yesterday in our post "Neutrality maintained", the Nifty was poised in the neutral territory, waiting for direction. The Bulls came on to the scene and opened the Nifty with a 22 point positive gap up at 7515, which was never even threatened during the entire trading session thereafter. After a minor hiccup in our identified resistance zone of 7555 to 7575, the Nifty managed to overcome this and made a intraday high of 7593, dipped above 50 points and recovered, all in the last hour of trade, to close at 7580 with a gain of 87 points over its previous close. We took two trades on the long side and earned a total profit of 65 points in them.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power rises from +15 to +65 Bear Power reduces from -78 to -13 indicating that the Bulls have gained but the Bears are still in the reckoning. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7605 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7510 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are still in the neutral zone and are pointing across each other.

3) The Nifty has now closed above all its key EMAs and also above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 24 Jun 2014 - Neutrality maintained

Nifty continues to stand neutral, trading in the lower band. Bearishness setting in.

As discussed yesterday, Nifty continued to be Neutral at the start of expiry week. The Nifty opened with a positive gap up of 3 points and looked to trade in the green for the first 30 minutes of trade, clocking a high of 7535. However, once the Nifty breached the opening mark and the levels of 7500, it started making new intraday lows (7465, 7448 and finally 7442) with intermittent bouts of buying. In the last 40 minutes, the Bulls came back and saw a sharp recovery of almost 70 points when the Nifty got back to 7512 and closed at 7493 with a loss of 18 points against its previous close. We took two trades on the long side and could book a profit of 42 points on those trades.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +37 to +15 Bear Power rises from -27 to -78 indicating that the Bears have now got stronger but the Bulls are still in their safe zone. For today, the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7540 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7435 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are right in the middle of the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has closed below its 8EMA(7537) and its 13EMA(7520) however it has closed above its 21EMA(7457) and also closed above all its key DMAs.

Nifty - 23 Jun 2014 - Neutral at start of week

At start of expiry week, Nifty stands neutral, trading rangebound in the lower band.

As discussed on Friday, it turned out to be a "Critical EOW" as the Nifty traded in a confined range of 64 points between 6561 on the higher side and 6497 on the lower side, after opening with a gain on 3 points at 7543 and closing at 7511 with a loss of 29 points. Thus the Nifty has now made a lower high and a lower low too. On the weekly charts too, the Nifty made a lower high and a lower low, thus indicating that the Bears are getting stronger, as the Bulls try to hold on to critical supports.

1) The Elder Ray readings : Bull Power reduces from +80 to +37 Bear Power rises from -24 to -27 indicating that both the Bulls and the Bears are now almost equidistant from the zero line. For today the Bulls need to overcome the levels of 7560 to maintain their upwards momentum whereas the Bears need to breach the levels of 7490 to maintain their downwards momentum.

2) The stochastics are now in the neutral zone and are pointing downwards.

3) The Nifty has now closed below its 8EMA and 13EMA but has closed above its 21EMA and all its key DMAs.